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A report here discusses the murders of four pro-democracy protesters in Iran. One of the dead is the nephew of a prominent opposition leader. For more details on the recent violence, give this article a read.

Just as he failed to properly denounce the Iranian regime’s violent response to this summer’s election protests, President Obama still has not spoken out against this most recent wave of violence. If this is his idea of changing America’s image abroad, his critics who claim he has little respect for America’s unique contributions to the world may be on to something.

Brazil, one of the largest and most powerful emerging countries in the world, has arrived on the world stage. Brazil along with India and China has been a key negotiator in the World Trade Organization’s Doha Round and is vying for a UN Security Council Seat. Also, a few weeks ago, Rio de Jeneiro, surprisingly beat the odds by winning the Olympic bid for 2016. Now, it is flexing its political muscle by entering into the dark hole of Middle East politics.
Today, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is hosting the infamous Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. In the last two weeks, Brazil has hosted President Shimon Peres of Israel and President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority. In his radio address, President Lula said “There’s no point in leaving Iran isolated,” rather “It’s important that someone sits down with Iran, talks with Iran and tries to establish some balance so that the Middle East can return to a certain sense of normalcy.”
This is a clear shot at the American approach, yet ever after Americans changed their approach and offered Iran a number of opportunities, Iran has refused to comply. Meanwhile, Brazil undercuts the United States’ effort and offers the embattled Ahmedinejad an air of legitimacy in the international community.
Can Brazil realistically broker peace? Possibly. If it is seen as a neutral party with the trust of both sides it maybe successful and add to Brazil growing international prestige. However, Russia and China, both of whom are on the table during P5+1 negotiations, are seen as neutral or even pro-Iranian and Iran is unwilling to meet their demands. Brazil may have arrived, but it needs to be careful where it goes from here.

The United States and its European allies have threatened Iran with additional sanctions if it does not comply with international inspection agreements. The stand comes after the revelation that Iran is constructing a secret nuclear facility near the holy city of Qum. The six party talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program are expected to begin on Thursday in Geneva. Meanwhile, Jalal Talibani, the Iraqi President, said that sanctions against Iran won’t work and Iraq will not allow any country to use its airspace for aggressive actions on Iran. Without Iraqi cooperation, any sanction on Iran is bound to fail.

All of these recent developments require a reconsideration of Obama’s Iran strategy. The belief that extending a hand forward and sending greetings to the people of Iran will soften the regime’s stance now seems naive. If there is no threat to the regime’s survival, then there is little incentive for Iranians to comply and they would benefit from waiting to get concessions from the West. Sanctions are unlikely to have a desired effect without Iraqi cooperation and given Russian and Chinese stance, they are unlikely to be strong enough.

The President recently approved tariffs on rubber products from China. The Chinese are expected to impose their own tariffs on Chicken and automotive products. However, the broader implications of U.S. – China trade fight are critical as China continues to rise in its influence and stature. China is part of the six party talks with Iran and North Korea and if the President is expecting the Chinese to pressure the two countries into giving up their rogue nuclear programs, he is going to have to do much to reconcile.

It is unfortunate that Obama is jeopardizing two key items on his foreign policy agenda so he can cater to a tiny special interest group. Furthermore, the President’s calls for keeping the global economy open are going to sound hypocritical as we approach the G-20 Summit in Pittsburg later this month.

Iran and Venezuela, two countries that have an acrimonious relationship with the United States, have announced recent efforts to cooperate against “imperialist” countries such as the US.  Among the cooperative measures, Venezuela will begin to export gasoline to Iran, the two countries will conduct a joint geological survey in South America, build ethanol plants, and establish a “nuclear village” in Venezuela, the details of which are unavailable at this point.

Despite President Obama’s belief that he can mollify animosity between the United States and Iran/Venezuela by taking a “softer” approach toward foreign policy than President Bush did, these two countries remain both totalitarian and dedicated to standing up to the United States regardless of who is president. Therefore, President Obama should oppose this alliance and speak out against Venezuela’s and Iran’s undemocratic governments (instead of focusing on Honduras). He has nothing to lose by doing so.

In a move that bolstered the embattled Iranian President, the parliament approved 18 of the 21 cabinet members, including the first woman to serve on the cabinet under the current regime. The move solidified Ahmadinejad’s legitimacy and is part of series of moves that have normalized Iranian affairs while silencing the opposition.

It is safe to say that Iran’s regime is no longer under imminent threat, though cracks have appeared in the foundation of the revolution.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the United Arab Emirates seized North Korean weapons bound for Iran last month.  The weapons include  “detonators and ammunition for rocket-propelled grenade launchers,” and ship crew members appear to have concealed the weapons by labeling them “oil-boring machines” on the ship’s manifest. Because the ship was Australian and the shipping company was Italian, the UN Security Council noted that multiple countries will investigate the incident, which is now illegal under new UN sanctions imposed against North Korea in May for testing a nuclear device.

Financial TImes’ Clive Crook chimes in.

Mahmoud Ahmedinejad wins in a landslide claiming over 65% of the vote as reported by the state news agencies, however, Mir Hussein Moussavi has also claimed victory citing serious irregularities in the election. He has asked Ayatollah Khamenei to moderate the dispute.

More on this as news comes in.

Polls just closed in Iran and the high turnout might mean trouble for the controversial Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Analysts have predicted that a high turnout will most likely benefit the reformist candidate Mir Hussein Moussavi, who served as prime minister from 1980 to 1988.

Although it is likely that the race will go to a runoff a week later, there has been some speculation that the high turnout will push Mr. Moussavi over the edge giving him the necessary 50% needed to win the race outright. We will be following the race and discuss the results and implications for U.S. policy as they come in.