It has been noted on more than one occasion that the United States is an island. A big one, but an island nonetheless. Our isolation from Europe and Asia has kept us out the direct contact and prevented invasion for most of our history, but has also made us extremely dependent on naval dominance. Without a powerful navy, the US is largely unable to project force to combat zones around the world and the strength of our ground forces are moot. It is therefore rather alarming to read this article from the US Naval Institute, indicating that there is now a consensus belief in the upper-echelons of the Navy that the Chinese have developed an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) capable of killing aircraft carrers with a single hit from up to 2000 miles away.
Ever since WWII, the US Navy has focused on the development of aircraft carrier battlegroups. Simply put, the core strength of the fleet lies in our massive aircraft carriers, each of which is over 300 yards long with an on-board wing of 90 aircraft. These carriers are able to project US force anywhere in the world very rapidly and very effectively, by launching both strike (ground attack) and air-superiority missions on a very large scale. The carriers are by an assortment of cruisers, destoyers, frigates, and supply ships, which compose the rest of the battlegroup. These ships are highly effective on their own, but the lynchpin to the whole concept is the strength of the carriers. A Chinese program that can knock out carriers with virtual inpunity is therefore something of a problem.
The chief, current threat to the modern US supercarrier is the guided missile, which emerged as a major threat to vessels of all types during the Cold War. In respose to this threat, the Navy developed the Aegis Combat System, which is a phased array and guidance system that directs surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to multiple, simultaneous targets. Basically, the gist of the whole system is that ships with Aegis can track and engage multiple targets simultaneously, including incoming aircraft and missiles. This, coupled with close in defense systems, like the Phalanx CIWS, do a very good job or protecting our carrier battlegroups from incoming missiles and aircraft.
Unfortunately, the Chinese missile in question, however, is not an ordinary anti-ship missile, but rather is a ballistic missile. This means that instead of flying directly at a target, like an ordinary missile, the Chinese missile’s trajectory looks like a parabola; it flies up into the atmosphere (and possibly into space), then drops back down at extremely high velocity towards a target. Neither Aegis nor CIWS can target the missile, due to its extremely high speed and its extremely high angle of attack, rendering our carriers extremely vulnerable.
By the sound of things, the US Navy (USN) is rather worried about the threat posed by these ASBM and is working on possible counter-measures. At the moment, however, if the missiles really are already operational, our fleets are extremely vulnerable. Few weapons systems perform to their full-potential on their first use, but if the capabilities of the Chinese ASBM approach what the USN appears to suspect, a near-future naval conflict may be over before it begins.
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