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Brazil, one of the largest and most powerful emerging countries in the world, has arrived on the world stage. Brazil along with India and China has been a key negotiator in the World Trade Organization’s Doha Round and is vying for a UN Security Council Seat. Also, a few weeks ago, Rio de Jeneiro, surprisingly beat the odds by winning the Olympic bid for 2016. Now, it is flexing its political muscle by entering into the dark hole of Middle East politics.
Today, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is hosting the infamous Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. In the last two weeks, Brazil has hosted President Shimon Peres of Israel and President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority. In his radio address, President Lula said “There’s no point in leaving Iran isolated,” rather “It’s important that someone sits down with Iran, talks with Iran and tries to establish some balance so that the Middle East can return to a certain sense of normalcy.”
This is a clear shot at the American approach, yet ever after Americans changed their approach and offered Iran a number of opportunities, Iran has refused to comply. Meanwhile, Brazil undercuts the United States’ effort and offers the embattled Ahmedinejad an air of legitimacy in the international community.
Can Brazil realistically broker peace? Possibly. If it is seen as a neutral party with the trust of both sides it maybe successful and add to Brazil growing international prestige. However, Russia and China, both of whom are on the table during P5+1 negotiations, are seen as neutral or even pro-Iranian and Iran is unwilling to meet their demands. Brazil may have arrived, but it needs to be careful where it goes from here.

In a move that bolstered the embattled Iranian President, the parliament approved 18 of the 21 cabinet members, including the first woman to serve on the cabinet under the current regime. The move solidified Ahmadinejad’s legitimacy and is part of series of moves that have normalized Iranian affairs while silencing the opposition.

It is safe to say that Iran’s regime is no longer under imminent threat, though cracks have appeared in the foundation of the revolution.

Polls just closed in Iran and the high turnout might mean trouble for the controversial Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Analysts have predicted that a high turnout will most likely benefit the reformist candidate Mir Hussein Moussavi, who served as prime minister from 1980 to 1988.

Although it is likely that the race will go to a runoff a week later, there has been some speculation that the high turnout will push Mr. Moussavi over the edge giving him the necessary 50% needed to win the race outright. We will be following the race and discuss the results and implications for U.S. policy as they come in.