National Security Online Resource Center

After traveling to Swaziland in October, Equatorial Guinea in November, and Myanmar in December, the Dictator of the Month now moves to Europe to profile the only remaining official dictator in Europe, Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus.

Profiled by BBC in 2007, Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994, three years after the Soviet Union collapsed. He makes no secret of his authoritarian nature. This article mentions that Lukashenko had supported the coup attempt against Soviet leader Gorbachev in 1991, and that he disbanded parliament in 1996 when threatened with impeachment.

Since then, he has won elections with little opposition and also overturned a constitutional term-limit, just as Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez did recently. When facing the prospect of opposition to his rule, he described how be would handle his opponents: “We will wring their necks, as one might a duck”. Undoubtedly, the KGB (the former Soviet agency has not changed its name in Belarus) carries out his will.

At this point, we have no reason to believe that Lukashenko will be removed from office any time soon, barring an assassination or an act of God. This report indicates that his hold on power is very strong compared to that deposed leaders in Georgia, who could not defeat resistance leaders.

Since everyone seems to be making a list, we at NSORC figured that we should make a list of our own. So here we go:

5. D.C. Sniper/Anthrax Attacks – Both events followed the attacks of September 11 touched a nerve as people were scared more than ever. Ten people were killed by the sniper with 3 others seriously injured. The anthrax attacks killed 5 while injuring seventeen.

4. Fort Hood Massacre: The killing of 13 people by Major Nidal Malik Hasan is currently being investigated as a possible homegrown terrorist attack. The event raised questions about other possible planned attacks in the U.S.

3. Guantanamo Bay/Abu Ghraib – American treatment of prisoners from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was extremely controversial and subject of much debate in the United States and abroad. These events were a major blow to American image in the Muslim World

2. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – Both wars will continue into the next decade but the current decade was marred with stories, discussion and opposition to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

1. 9/11 – History has yet to make a final judgment on how Sept. 11 2001 changed the paradigm of American National Security. However we can say that no other event in the past decade was more significant in the National Security realm than the terrorist attacks nearly 9 years ago.

John’s elaboration on the terrorist incident is interesting, especially the part about the suspect’s extraordinary wealth and family prestige in Nigeria.

Victor Davis Hanson at National Review Online echoes John’s point and adds that this fact further dispels a leftist notion that the average terrorist becomes one due to either poverty or U.S. support for Israel. Rather, fundamentalist Islam “encourages in an Hasan or Mutallab age-old passions like pride, envy, and a sense of inferiority — all accelerated by instantaneous communications and abetted by continual Western apologetics that on a global level blame Westerners for self-induced misery in many Islamic countries.”

Hanson also adds that we will now see fewer criticisms of Bush’s approach to counterterrorism as the nation is reminded of how real the threat remains. Obama has publicly denounced Bush’s “destroying” the constitution while retaining virtually every counterterrorism tactic in Bush’s arsenal.

For those who still want to blame the West for this attack along with every other act of Islamist terrorism, you can blame British colonial administrator F.D. Lugard, who ruled Northern Nigeria from 1914-1919. Lugard ruled indirectly through local Muslim rulers, forming a power structure that resulted in Sharia law’s current existence in Northern Nigeria today. But Lugard only created one breeding ground for radical Islam; had not a Nigerian terrorist carried out this plot, someone else could have.

As time progresses, it is becoming clear that Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab was not an average student. His father is the former Nigerian economics minister and is currently on the boards of many significant Nigerian firms. Abdulmutallab was living in a multi-million pound flat in London, very different surroundings than those usually frequented by al-Qaeda terrorists.

But while his residence may have been unusual, his intentions were the same. He had received 80 grams of PETN – a very powerful explosive usually used in coordination with another substance or as a detonator – sewn into a pair of underpants from al-Qaeda leaders in Yemen. The goal was to instill fear in the hearts of many on Christmas Day, but brave passengers prevented disaster.

There is some concern why – after being warned six months ago by Abdulmutallab’s father of his son’s radicalized nature – security officials still allowed him to board the plane in the first place.

As the busy travel season continues, many wonder what new regulations may be put in place. TSA has said that international travelers coming to the U.S. should expect “additional security measures in place” that are “designed to be unpredictable,” and so will be different depending on the airport.

Among several new in-flight rules for international flights, passengers are no longer allowed to get out of their seats during the last hour of the flight and cannot have any items in their lap. While it appears these new precautions would have done nothing to stop Abdulmutallab on Friday, they will surely result in longer lines and more hassle while travelling.

Luckily, the actions of those aboard flight 253 thwarted catastrophe. Through their bravery, evil was deprived of victory. That is certainly the best Christmas present any could have asked for.

A report here discusses the murders of four pro-democracy protesters in Iran. One of the dead is the nephew of a prominent opposition leader. For more details on the recent violence, give this article a read.

Just as he failed to properly denounce the Iranian regime’s violent response to this summer’s election protests, President Obama still has not spoken out against this most recent wave of violence. If this is his idea of changing America’s image abroad, his critics who claim he has little respect for America’s unique contributions to the world may be on to something.

Excellent and timely analysis from Ross Douthat on the Obama Presidency thus far:

In hindsight, the most prescient sentence penned during the presidential campaign belongs to Ryan Lizza of The New Yorker. “Perhaps the greatest misconception about Barack Obama,” he wrote in July 2008, “is that he is some sort of anti-establishment revolutionary. Rather, every stage of his political career has been marked by an eagerness to accommodate himself to existing institutions rather than tear them down or replace them.”

The New Yorker Article is here and the rest of Douthat here.

Christmas is a time to help others, which is exactly what these passengers did when they subdued a Nigerian terrorist who attempted to ignite an explosive device on an airplane landing in Detroit. According to federal officials, the suspect tried to ignite a concoction of powder and liquid that was taped to his leg. As he tried to set it off, passengers heard a firecracker-like noise that sent them into panic before they subdued the suspect.

President Obama has been briefed about the incident, and White House officials have designated the incident as an “act of attempted terrorism.” At this point, much has to be investigated. The suspect, Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab, claims to have ties to al-Qadea, but the FBI is currently investigating this allegation. Officials are also trying to determine the suspect’s exact intentions in setting off the device, and whether the device was even capable of exploding the airplane. We will have more here as the investigation unfolds.

Nigeria is not frequently mentioned as a terrorist haven in the mainstream media. But a Nigerian al-Qadea suspect should not come as a complete surprise. Like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Sudan, and Yemen, Sharia Law is also practiced in northern Nigeria, which is where most of the nation’s Muslim population resides. Northern Nigeria has been historically Muslim while the south has been predominantly Christian due to the British dividing the country in half for colonial purposes and ruling indirectly through Muslim rulers in the north.

I have not yet decided on a “Dictator of the Month” for January, but the leadership of Socialist Republic of Vietnam officially puts forth its candidacy with the June arrest of three dissidents. The most notable arrest is that of an American-educated attorney who has been an advocate for human rights.

The article reports that the arrests, on charges of “subversion” that carry a potential death sentence, come as the Communist Party of Vietnam prepares for its 2011 Communist Party Conference. For those who are unfamiliar with communist administrations, communist countries host occasional “party conferences” where the official party positions are decided. In light of such an event where major policy decisions in Vietnam will be made, a totalitarian state would naturally but sadly crack down on dissenters.

I am looking forward to President Obama’s response to this crackdown. Vietnam has fallen off the radar in terms of media coverage, but that is no reason to ignore its human rights violations. Considering Obama’s hesitation to speak out against human rights violations in non-western countries (think of Iran for instance), I would not hold my breath for his response.

The dissidents are expected to stand trial relatively soon, according to the New York Times. I will write a follow up post on the trial’s outcome when it is official. But as the accused have already “confessed” and asked the government for clemency, this trial is more likely to be a show trial where the sentencing will be the only interesting outcome.

A British Court issued an arrest warrant for former Israeli Foreign Minister and leader of the opposition Kadima Party,Tzipi Livni, for her alleged role during the Gaza War. Livni was scheduled to visit London but canceled her visit in advance due to scheduling concerns. The judge, unaware of the cancellation, issued the warrant only to recant later when it was discovered that she was not in the country.

This is not the first time that the United Kingdom has issued an arrest warrant against a former Israeli politician for their involvement in the Gaza War. Ehud Barak, Israel’s defense minister and leader of the Labour Party, was also targeted by lawyers but escaped because the Foreign Office declared that he was a serving minister who was meeting his counterparts and thus enjoyed immunity. The warrants have been issued on the behest Palestinians who have claimed to be victims of the Gaza War under the 1998 Criminal Justice Act, giving courts in England and Wales ‘universal jurisdiction’ over any case related to war crimes.

The larger issue brought to light here is the debate over universal jurisdiction. Can a judicial system in one country prosecute leader or former leader of another country for crimes not committed in its state or against its people? International law says Yes. Yet could this not be exploited for self advancement or sympathy to a particular cause. How can a judge in England conduct a fair trial for something that happened thousands of miles away? These are difficult questions but one thing is clear: Israel-UK relations took a serious hit.

Story here

I think we all knew things were going down the proverbial toilet when a Danish memo leaked that supposedly already had plans drawn up, plans drawn up without the assistance of any other country, much less developing nations. This was followed by a EU promise of 7bn. euro towards a “climate fund”, again the developing nations cried foul, stating that it “wasn’t enough”. then Bangladesh, one of the countries that is viewed most at risk by climate change, demanded a plurality of any of the money spent in climate change. All this lead to a secession of talks as members of the G-77 (From South Korea, to small poor African nations) walked out, demanding that earlier Kyoto goals be enforced. And so, we are at an impasse. Any hope for a solution at this conference or any time in the near future is now dead. See you at cop16.