National Security Online Resource Center

The United States and its European allies have threatened Iran with additional sanctions if it does not comply with international inspection agreements. The stand comes after the revelation that Iran is constructing a secret nuclear facility near the holy city of Qum. The six party talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program are expected to begin on Thursday in Geneva. Meanwhile, Jalal Talibani, the Iraqi President, said that sanctions against Iran won’t work and Iraq will not allow any country to use its airspace for aggressive actions on Iran. Without Iraqi cooperation, any sanction on Iran is bound to fail.

All of these recent developments require a reconsideration of Obama’s Iran strategy. The belief that extending a hand forward and sending greetings to the people of Iran will soften the regime’s stance now seems naive. If there is no threat to the regime’s survival, then there is little incentive for Iranians to comply and they would benefit from waiting to get concessions from the West. Sanctions are unlikely to have a desired effect without Iraqi cooperation and given Russian and Chinese stance, they are unlikely to be strong enough.